As the coronavirus engulfed New York City early last year, Adrienne Crespo, a subway conductor, watched the crowds on the platforms slowly thin out. Then one afternoon, she pulled an A train into the West Fourth Street-Washington Square station — typically one of the busiest on her line — and saw only two people board.
“To look out there at rush hour and see nobody, it finally hit me,” Ms. Crespo, 49, said. “It was actually scary. I thought, ‘Wow, this is bad. This is really, really bad.’”
A year ago the pandemic drained the subway of nearly all its riders, sickened thousands of New York City transit workers and plunged North America’s largest public transit agency into its worst financial emergency ever.
Today ridership on the subway has crept back up to about a third of its usual levels, from an all-time low of 7 percent last spring. An infusion of billions of dollars in federal aid has kept the Metropolitan Transportation Authority afloat. And the agency, which operates the subway, buses and two commuter rail lines, was further lifted by another $6 billion in President Biden’s sweeping rescue plan.
But the M.T.A.’s long-term survival depends on the return of riders and their fares, which make up the agency’s largest funding source. Nearly 40 percent of the agency’s operating revenue comes from fares, a higher percentage than almost any other major American transit system.
Now as the city’s mass vaccination campaign reaches more people and urban life slowly rebounds, public transit officials are confronting a sobering reality: a growing consensus that ridership may never return entirely to its prepandemic levels and that the agency will have to reshape and reduce service to reflect new commuting patterns.
Adjusting to a new normal could mean longer waits between trains during what was once considered rush hour and less service on suburban-bound trains, where ridership remains anemic.
With many office workers still working from home, the M.T.A. has already scaled back service on both its commuter rails, Metro-North and the Long Island Rail Road, where ridership has plateaued at about a quarter of prepandemic levels.
Even as the pandemic subsides, some companies are shifting workplace rules to make at least some remote work a permanent option.
The uncertainty makes projections challenging, but an analysis by McKinsey & Company commissioned by the M.T.A. found that ridership might eventually reach 80 to 92 percent of prepandemic levels — and not until the end of 2024.
“Commuter culture is going to change,” said Kathryn Wylde, the president of the Partnership for New York City, an influential business group. “People are looking for more flexibility and more options, which improves their quality of life. That’s definitely a legacy of the pandemic.”
Though public health experts generally agree that riding trains and buses is not a major risk factor for exposure to the virus, transit experts say some commuters with the means to do so will still likely steer clear and opt for other ways of getting around — like using cars or bikes — that they turned to during the pandemic.
And some commuters have voiced fears after seeing fellow riders flouting the M.T.A.’s mask requirements, even though the agency has handed out millions of free masks.
“It’s difficult for me when people don’t put on the mask,’’ said Manil Molina, a health aide, who has no choice but to ride the subway to get to her job.
The confluence of factors causing riders to turn their back on mass transit risks stalling the region’s recovery, transportation and economic experts warn. A surge of car traffic into Manhattan would cause gridlock and the loss of productivity and higher air pollution that come with increased congestion. And if ridership does not bounce back, the transportation agency could sink back into a financial crisis.
Before the pandemic, no part of the country depended more on mass transit. Eight million people in the New York region — including over 50 percent of the city’s population — rode public transit every weekday.
“The existential question for the city in the coming years is how do you convince people that transit is safe so they can get back on it,” said Nick Sifuentes, the former executive director of Tri-State Transportation Campaign, an advocacy group.
Some won’t have to, at least for their commutes. Many larger employers have adopted work-from-home policies that will outlast the pandemic. Others are considering creating satellite offices outside Manhattan and in suburbs that are closer to employees’ homes, in hopes of providing dedicated working spaces — away from children and cramped apartments — and offering shorter, more walkable commutes.
Less than 50 percent of people who worked in Manhattan offices in 2019 will be working from those offices in the coming years, according to a recent survey by the Partnership for New York City.
Transit officials acknowledge that shifting ridership patterns will likely dictate what kind of system emerges as the pandemic eases its grip, though they say there are no specific blueprints.
“The shape of the rush in the morning and the afternoon are different,’’ Patrick J. Foye, the chairman of the M.T.A., said in an interview. “We are going to have to look at tailoring service to that.’’
The pandemic upended what was gearing up to be a momentous year for the M.T.A. Following a spate of meltdowns and derailments in 2017 that prompted Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo to declare a state of emergency, the on-time rate for weekday trains had climbed to over 80 percent — the best performance in seven years. Ridership rebounded in 2019, after declining for three years.
And the agency had also just approved its biggest ever spending plan — a sweeping $54 billion overhaul to finally bring the system into the 21st century. It called for buying more than 1,900 subway cars and 500 electric buses, adding elevators to 70 stations to make the system more accessible and replacing the subway’s dilapidated signals with a modern network that would put more trains on the tracks, increasing capacity and easing overcrowding.
But the coronavirus brought everything to a halt. Inside the M.T.A.’s towering headquarters in Lower Manhattan, transit officials convened a round-the-clock situation room to field reports of plummeting ridership and rapidly evolving public health guidance while dusting off emergency plans to curtail service and even close the entire system down.
While they never took such a drastic step, officials did shut down overnight subway service to disinfect the system — a sobering moment for a city that takes pride in its 24-hour public transit.
Soon reports of transit workers falling sick began flooding in — bringing home the human toll of the crisis. A hotline the M.T.A. started for workers to report positive test results and receive self-quarantine guidance became overwhelmed with 7,000 to 8,000 calls per day. A year later, thousands of transit workers have fallen sick and more than 140 have died.
At the same time, the M.T.A. was quickly approaching a financial cliff. By April, ridership had cratered, draining the system of critical fare revenue practically overnight. At the lowest point, around 400,000 of the subway’s usual 5.5 million daily riders were using the system while bus ridership plummeted to 20 percent of normal.
“It was orders of magnitude worse than the Great Depression,” Mr. Foye said.
Almost immediately, the M.T.A. began lobbying Washington for emergency federal aid, threatening draconian measures — such as slashing subway and bus service in New York City by 40 percent — to press its case.
Frequently Asked Questions About the New Stimulus Package
The stimulus payments would be $1,400 for most recipients. Those who are eligible would also receive an identical payment for each of their children. To qualify for the full $1,400, a single person would need an adjusted gross income of $75,000 or below. For heads of household, adjusted gross income would need to be $112,500 or below, and for married couples filing jointly that number would need to be $150,000 or below. To be eligible for a payment, a person must have a Social Security number. Read more.
Buying insurance through the government program known as COBRA would temporarily become a lot cheaper. COBRA, for the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, generally lets someone who loses a job buy coverage via the former employer. But it’s expensive: Under normal circumstances, a person may have to pay at least 102 percent of the cost of the premium. Under the relief bill, the government would pay the entire COBRA premium from April 1 through Sept. 30. A person who qualified for new, employer-based health insurance someplace else before Sept. 30 would lose eligibility for the no-cost coverage. And someone who left a job voluntarily would not be eligible, either. Read more
This credit, which helps working families offset the cost of care for children under 13 and other dependents, would be significantly expanded for a single year. More people would be eligible, and many recipients would get a bigger break. The bill would also make the credit fully refundable, which means you could collect the money as a refund even if your tax bill was zero. “That will be helpful to people at the lower end” of the income scale, said Mark Luscombe, principal federal tax analyst at Wolters Kluwer Tax & Accounting. Read more.
There would be a big one for people who already have debt. You wouldn’t have to pay income taxes on forgiven debt if you qualify for loan forgiveness or cancellation — for example, if you’ve been in an income-driven repayment plan for the requisite number of years, if your school defrauded you or if Congress or the president wipes away $10,000 of debt for large numbers of people. This would be the case for debt forgiven between Jan. 1, 2021, and the end of 2025. Read more.
The bill would provide billions of dollars in rental and utility assistance to people who are struggling and in danger of being evicted from their homes. About $27 billion would go toward emergency rental assistance. The vast majority of it would replenish the so-called Coronavirus Relief Fund, created by the CARES Act and distributed through state, local and tribal governments, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition. That’s on top of the $25 billion in assistance provided by the relief package passed in December. To receive financial assistance — which could be used for rent, utilities and other housing expenses — households would have to meet several conditions. Household income could not exceed 80 percent of the area median income, at least one household member must be at risk of homelessness or housing instability, and individuals would have to qualify for unemployment benefits or have experienced financial hardship (directly or indirectly) because of the pandemic. Assistance could be provided for up to 18 months, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition. Lower-income families that have been unemployed for three months or more would be given priority for assistance. Read more.
Those efforts have paid off: Since the start of the pandemic the M.T.A. has gotten a total of roughly $14 billion in federal aid, keeping trains and buses rolling while allowing the agency to revive parts of its modernization plan.
Transit officials said they would spend as much as $10 billion on upgrades this year on projects like updating the signals on lines that have remained the busiest throughout the pandemic.
The authority also plans to break ground for elevators in at least nine stations to improve its poor record on accessibility, buy 95 buses and new trains for the commuter railroads and complete repairs to a subway tunnel under the East River that was damaged during Hurricane Sandy.
Still, even with the M.T.A. on more stable financial ground, officials said the suspension of the modernization plan will likely mean some projects will be delayed until the next five-year capital program.
“We’ve lost a year — that’s the real downside,” said Janno Leiber, the M.T.A.’s construction chief.
The agency has also turned its focus to convincing riders that it is safe to use public transit again. More people have returned to buses, where ridership has risen to just over 40 percent of normal, than to the trains.
A spate of attacks against subway riders in recent months has raised safety concerns and fueled the perception that the subway has become less safe.
And lingering fears about crowding onto packed subway cars could make some riders reluctant to return. “When it’s empty, it’s better,” said Ms. Molina, the health aide.
The M.T.A. has sought to address riders’ concerns by pressing for more police patrols, distributing face masks and continuing a rigorous overnight subway disinfection regimen that began last spring. (The overnight closure has been reduced from four to two hours each night.)
“Making people feel safe in the system is absolutely critical to bringing ridership back,” said Sarah Feinberg, the interim president of New York City Transit. “It has to not just be safe, it has to feel safe for people to have confidence.”
How successful those efforts are will influence the agency’s financial picture and will shape the region’s rebound.
Inside the subway, Ms. Crespo has been heartened by slowly swelling crowds on subway platforms that are breathing some life back into the system.
Still, she worries — about the rising number of assaults against transit workers, about the increasing and often volatile encounters with riders who refuse to wear masks and about her job security if the M.T.A.’s finances take another turn for the worse.
“It’s not over,’’ she said. “This crisis is not over.”
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The Only Thing That Can Really Save the Subway: Riders - The New York Times
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