2. Two key factors that could decide today's week 17 matchup against Miami
NFL Network's analytics expert Cynthia Frelund went through and analyzed five games with serious playoff implications for Week 17. Today's Bills-Dolphins matchup was on her list as Miami is trying to earn one of the last playoff spots in the AFC while Buffalo is trying to lock up the No. 2 seed and the home playoff games that come with that. Here's what Frelund had to say about the Bills regular-season finale:
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Dolphins' playoff percentage: 62.4
Bills' No. 2 seed percentage: 57.9
In Tua Tagovailoa's first six starts, he averaged 8.8 air yards per attempt, per Next Gen Stats. Over the last two outings, though, Tua has posted a significantly decreased figure of 3.9 air yards per attempt. NGS also shows that, in the past two weeks, the No. 5 overall pick has struggled on passes of 10-plus yards: 2-of-7 (28.6%) for 25 yards (3.6 ypa) and zero touchdowns. That's a stark departure from his production on such throws over his first six starts: 27-of-61 (44.3%) for 484 yards (7.9 ypa), with three touchdowns and an interception.
Buffalo's offense has been clicking to the tune of 6.5 yards per play over the past four weeks, averaging 36.5 points per game (second-best in that span). While Kansas City has already locked up the AFC's top seed (and accompanying bye), the AFC East champion Bills are motivated to win in order to secure the No. 2 seed. So, if the Dolphins want to prevail, their rookie quarterback will likely need to succeed in more than just the very short passing game. (Or they'll need another round of FitzMagic in relief.)
Cynthia's Prediction: Buffalo – 27, Miami – 22
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January 03, 2021 at 05:00PM
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Bills Today | 6 milestones that can be reached in Buffalo's regular season finale - BuffaloBills.com
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