MIAMI — The presidential contest in the nation’s tightest swing state, and perhaps the entire race for the White House, ultimately comes down to two big bets.
Florida Democrats are placing the more complicated wager: that they can turn out enough low-propensity, new and blue-leaning independent voters — along with more senior citizens than usual — to win the day.
The Republican gamble is more straightforward. It hinges on turning out their more numerous high-propensity voters on Election Day — a time-honored practice for the Florida GOP.
For the past three general elections here, Republicans have prevailed with that strategy.
“We have better, more reliable voters,” said Blaise Ingoglia, former chairman of Republican Party of Florida. “I think that Covid, and the media hounding on that issue, could keep Democrats from heading to the polls and now it’s too late to cast their votes by mail.”
Those fears of coronavirus delayed Joe Biden’s campaign and Florida Democrats from registering new voters and from hitting the ground in force with field staff and volunteers to turn out voters. The late start has already led to concerns, particularly in Miami, that turnout will not be at the level necessary to flip the state.
But by casting a record number of absentee ballots by mail, Democrats amassed a big cushion over Republicans, who came out in force during the state’s in-person early voting period that ran from Oct. 19 through Sunday.
By then, Republicans had pulled to within 95,000 ballots of Democrats, compared to a 90,000 vote Democratic margin heading into Election Day in 2016, when Trump narrowly won. Sunday was the final day of in-person early voting in many Democrat-heavy counties.
While Republicans boast of having 167,000 more high-propensity voters than Democrats, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 2 percentage points on Florida’s voter rolls. And Democrats are still turning out higher numbers of new voters and voters who didn’t cast ballots in the last two general elections.
“I think Republicans are underestimating. You’re seeing a tremendous amount of energy from Democrats and from sporadic voters who only turn out in presidential election years,” said Ashley Walker, a top adviser to Barack Obama’s two presidential campaigns in Florida.
“The reality is that we’ve been able to turn out low-propensity voters in two of the last three presidentials and this race is a lot different from the last one we lost, in 2016,” she said. “And the question is, will they continue to come out on Election Day?”
Walker said presidential races shouldn’t be compared to the midterm elections of 2014 and 2018 because campaigns for the White House tend to produce far-higher turnout. And that higher turnout is usually associated with more Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters casting ballots in Florida.
Still, there’s a higher degree of worry among Democratic insiders than Republicans because the GOP has won more top-of-the-ticket races in Florida, despite having fewer registered voters overall and despite a spate of pre-Election Day polls that show Biden with a narrow lead.
Most recent polls put the race here within the margin of error. Biden holds a 2-point advantage, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, but that’s little comfort to Democrats. Hillary Clinton also held margin-of-error leads in many late Florida polls before losing the state narrowly.
An ABC/Washington Post poll released Saturday showed Trump with a 2-point lead.
Biden, however, appears to be capturing more white voters than Clinton — they make up two-thirds of the electorate -- and Biden is also doing better with seniors. Both groups tend to vote Republican. Polls show Trump is getting more Hispanic voters than in 2016 — a troubling sign for Biden — but the Democrat can afford to lose more Hispanic voters as long as he can keep his higher share of whites than Clinton.
As of Sunday morning, a record 8.7 million Floridians had voted early in person and by mail, meaning 60 percent of all voters have cast ballots in the state as of Sunday morning. Democrats cast 39 percent of the ballots, Republicans 38 percent and independents 23 percent.
Most polls show Biden winning independents, who account for about a quarter of likely voters. Generally, the party that turns out its base and wins independents carries Florida.
In recent days, Democrats have watched with some alarm as the share of votes from Black and Hispanic voters in Democrat-rich Miami-Dade County have lagged statewide averages. Activists and political leaders have also complained that the Biden campaign invested too late in field staff and instead just plowed money into TV advertising while Trump’s campaign stayed on the ground, knocking on doors.
Biden also didn’t do much traveling during the pandemic. Both he and his running mate Sen. Kamala Harris have made do with drive-in rallies in Florida where they don’t advertise the location due to pandemic safety concerns. In contrast, Trump has rallied far more in Florida – including a midnight event planned in Miami for Sunday night.
Democrats are still holding out hope that voters of color had a strong enough showing Sunday and will continue to vote in big numbers on Election Day to stem the expected tide of GOP voters. But they acknowledge they have worries.
“It’s something we’ve been watching very closely,” said Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of the Democratic data firm Hawkfish. “It should be an area of concern.”
"that" - Google News
November 02, 2020 at 04:30PM
https://ift.tt/3oNi7tF
The 2 big bets that will decide Florida - POLITICO
"that" - Google News
https://ift.tt/3d8Dlvv
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar