OAKLAND — Almost from the day he entered politics, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has been seen as surefire presidential timber.
Until last week, that is.
California Sen. Kamala Harris catapulted into the role of future Democratic Party standard bearer when Joe Biden picked her as his running mate. Should Democrats win in November, Harris could occupy a White House office for years to come.
As San Francisco mayor, Newsom is said to have joined friends and family in a toast on his 40th birthday — that some day they would fete him at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. His official calendars reflect an insatiable appetite for national television appearances.
Newsom has a prime speaking spot at the virtual Democratic National Convention on Thursday, the same night in which Biden will formally accept the nomination. Yet he now finds himself California's second fiddle to Harris on the presidential front.
“There’s no doubt that if Biden is elected and has a successful first term, she's got a huge advantage going into the next nominating process," said David Doak, a veteran Democratic strategist who has directed presidential campaigns for Richard Gephardt and Biden. "And she’s acquitted herself so far. She has surpassed all expectations of how much she would energize the party.”
Harris has already boosted fundraising for Biden and drawn huge national buzz about the prospect of the nation's first woman and first person of color serving as vice president. That makes any bid by Newsom, a white man, that much tougher in an era when calls for diversity have grown ever louder.
Newsom and Harris, contemporaries and seasoned combatants in the tough political mosh pit of San Francisco progressive politics, have been long viewed as rivals for attention and political clout in the nation’s most populous state. And the two admittedly ambitious California Democrats for years appeared to be mapping out parallel tracks to the brass ring of a presidential run.
Both launched their political careers into orbit the same year with hard-fought San Francisco victories in 2003.
Harris was the first Black and South Asian woman to be elected as the city's district attorney that year, and she made headlines as a prosecutor in a progressive bastion. In a notable decision that drew condemnation from law enforcement at the time, Harris opted not to seek the death penalty against the murderer of a San Francisco police officer.
After being elected San Francisco mayor in 2003, Newsom made history just days into his first term by declaring same-sex marriage legal in his city — famously declaring that, “like it or not," it would be the law of the land, years ahead of a Supreme Court decision that codified his move.
The two advanced in 2010 from San Francisco to statewide office, Harris narrowly winning the race for state attorney general and Newsom cruising to a lieutenant governor victory.
The intensity of their professional and political competition emerged publicly when California Sen. Barbara Boxer announced her retirement in 2015. Newsom almost immediately announced his intention to run instead for governor three years in advance, staking out a post viewed by many as a stronger path to the White House — and one that Harris had her eye on herself.
Despite her preference for the governor's job, hours after Newsom's decision, she became the first to declare her candidacy for the seat that Boxer had held since 1992. Once elected in 2016, Harris waited less than two years before launching her campaign for president.
Newsom backed Harris for president and served as her campaign co-chair. He announced his endorsement on MSNBC, saying he was "very enthusiastic about Kamala Harris" and that "the American people could not do better." She dropped out before the March primary this year as her hopes for a White House bid collapsed.
As Harris returns to the spotlight nationally and Democrats now turn their attention to her future, Newsom’s speech will be closely watched in his home state for any words about the California presidential candidate he endorsed.
“If Biden wins in November, she is certainly gonna be an overwhelming favorite for the next nomination — whenever that comes," said longtime Democratic strategist Bob Shrum.
Ever since Newsom became governor in 2018, it was commonly whispered in California circles that his best presidential path was the blue state's worst nightmare: a Trump re-election leading to an open Democratic field in 2024. Those whispers grew louder in the spring when Newsom and Trump uncharacteristically played nice during the early months of the coronavirus pandemic.
The last vice president who sought the presidency but did not get nominated by his party was Kentucky Democrat Alben Barkley in 1952. Already, Harris, 55, is widely expected to run for president should Biden, 77, win this year and leave after one term in 2024 — or in 2028, if he pursues two terms.
In the throes of 2020, the governor not only faces a blocked path to the White House but a multitude of statewide crises at the moment, any one of which threaten to upend his future prospects.
Months into the coronavirus pandemic, Newsom has to walk the narrowest of tightropes: Keep businesses shut, and risk damaging the economy and angering the electorate. Reopen too quickly, and risk another surge in infections that leads to more death and hospitalizations, as well as prolonged school closures.
A historic heat wave has twice confounded the state's power grid this month, forcing rolling blackouts. Lightning strikes have led to a wildfire state of emergency, a reminder of California's ever-combustible landscape. And the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis has touched off unprecedented social unrest and demands for racial justice in the nation's most diverse state.
“He is carrying a lot more baggage now than when he was before," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a professor at the University of Southern California’s Sol Price School of Public Policy. "Covid has stopped almost everyone in their tracks."
Republican State Sen. Melissa Melendez (R-Lake Elsinore) said that during the pandemic Newsom "has really more than stumbled a few times’’ in the five months since he declared a stay-at-home order and enjoyed record poll numbers.
“Now, we’re in August and it’s a complete mess," she said, citing blackouts, continued troubles with the state’s unemployment system that has delayed checks to constituents and a parade of aides who have left the governor’s office this year — including the director of the California Department of Public Health.
Republicans like Melendez suggest that leaves Newsom vulnerable to a challenge for his current job in 2022, despite Democrats' overwhelming registration advantage in California and the fact that there has been no GOP statewide officeholder in a decade.
“It’s kind of falling apart, and I don’t think he’s come to terms with that. He’s trying to show a brave face — but people need confidence that he’s going to right the ship," she said.
Doak said that even without the current problems, Newsom may be hamstrung in a White House campaign by having to run the fifth largest economy in the world.
"Being California governor is such a big job that the time away makes it difficult for somebody to run," he said. "So I think the Senate is actually a far better platform to run nationally than is the governorship. You just can’t be out of state for the time required to do the retail politics."
Doak said it’s not out of the question that Newsom, 52, may go another direction and run for the U.S. Senate should Democratic California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, 87, decide against seeking reelection in 2024.
Still, some Democrats still insist there’s an upside to the intrigue: both Newsom and Harris in the last decade have honed their political skills to the benefit of both the voters — and their party.
“They are contemporaries of age. They have different jobs, but are both futuristic kinds of leaders. Both enormously talented, both very charismatic…the best and the brightest," said Philip Recht, who served in the Clinton administration and was a finance chair for Harris’ campaign.
While Democratic activists like to ruminate about the colliding pathways of both Newsom and Harris, Recht cautioned that “four years is an eternity in politics. ... Who knows what things will look like in 2024?"
“Will it be a successful administration? Will Biden really step back and not seek a second term?," he asked. "We just don’t know."
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Kamala Harris is now California's presidential standard-bearer. Where does that leave Newsom? - Politico
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