Fall Is Now Jam-Packed for Book Publishers. That Could Be a Problem. - The New York Times

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In March, when parts of the United States began shutting down because of the coronavirus, the best-selling children’s book author Jeff Kinney faced a dilemma.

“Rowley Jefferson’s Awesome Friendly Adventure,” part of his popular Wimpy Kid series, was due out in April with a first printing of three million copies. His publisher had lined up a 10-city tour.

In a matter of days, those plans crumbled. “The book was about to land in stores that were closed to customers at the height of a pandemic,” Mr. Kinney said.

He and his publisher decided to postpone the release until August, in hopes that by then, his tour could be resurrected. Millions of copies are now sitting in warehouses. “It wasn’t an easy decision,” he said. “We knew lots of kids would enjoy the book while in lockdown.”

Delaying a book’s publication is a calculation that authors and publishers throughout the industry have made and wrestled with in recent months, as the pandemic has devastated the retail landscape and led to canceled tours, book fairs, literary festivals and media appearances. As publishers scramble to limit the economic fallout and sales declines driven by the epidemic, hundreds of books that were scheduled to come out this spring and early summer have been postponed, in some cases until next year.

The latest Wimpy Kid book from Jeff Kinney is among the many titles whose release dates are being pushed back. “It wasn’t an easy decision,” he said.Credit...Right: Ole Berg-Rusten/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Delayed titles include literary fiction by Elena Ferrante and David Mitchell, a book about manhood and parenting by the actor and comedian Michael Ian Black, “God-Level Knowledge Darts” from the comedy duo Desus and Mero, and nonfiction by prominent public intellectuals like Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Pankaj Mishra. The result is what looks to be an avalanche of high-profile books this fall, in the middle of a presidential election and an ongoing health and economic crisis, when consumers may be even more distracted.

“We’re a little afraid of the fall season being a gridlock of big books,” said Jonathan Burnham, the publisher of the HarperCollins imprint Harper, which has moved a handful of books, including “Battlegrounds,” from Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, the former national security adviser.

It may not be a bad problem to have. A flood of eagerly anticipated content is certainly preferable to the canceled shows, concerts and other events that have disrupted the broader cultural world.

Still, for publishers, who carefully calibrate their release dates so that big titles land on shopping-heavy holidays and don’t bump up against one another, the changes feel like a high-stakes game of Jenga. The reshuffling has caused logistical logjams, as books by prominent authors move into an increasingly crowded window for media attention, reviews and bookstore display space. Some publishers, particularly smaller houses, worry that printing plants will be overwhelmed, which could make it difficult to keep books in stock.

“Most of us expected that, by fall, things would be, if not exactly back to normal, pretty close to it,” said the literary agent Bill Clegg, whose own novel, “The End of the Day,” was delayed until late September. “Now, two and a half months later, that idea has a distant, once-upon-a-time quality to it.”

“Most of us expected that, by fall, things would be, if not exactly back to normal, pretty close to it,” Bill Clegg, the author of “The End of the Day,” said. His book has been postponed until September.Credit...Right: Van Scott-Clegg

Most editors say they are making decisions about release dates on a case-by-case basis, weighing factors like an author’s following, a book’s chances for prominent retail display, and whether major media appearances or book-club picks have already been scheduled.

Hachette has delayed fewer than 20 percent of its titles and has largely stayed on schedule with its best-known authors, said Michael Pietsch, its chief executive.

“Others that rely on retail display and bookseller recommendations, it makes sense to move — with awareness that there’s going to be a huge pileup of books vying for attention once bookstores reopen,” he said.

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt has moved more than 30 of its books, among them Larry Tye’s biography of Senator Joseph McCarthy and Crystal Smith’s young adult fantasy “Greythorne.”

The University of Chicago Press postponed 18 titles from its spring lineup to September. “Our thinking was that between the temporary closure of bookstores and the distracted state of the media and the consumer marketplace, they would have a better shot at reaching a broad audience that way,” said Elizabeth Branch Dyson, the press’s executive editor.

Other publishers have been reluctant to reschedule release dates, since there’s no guarantee that things will be better in the fall. Even if more bookstores reopen, customers may still be wary of them, and the economic fallout could worsen.

“Where are you going to move a book to? You’re going to move it to the fall, where you have the election and all these spring books that have moved?” said Morgan Entrekin, publisher and chief executive of Grove Atlantic, which has postponed just a few titles. “All the decisions we make are guesswork. None of us know what we’re doing.”

For authors with a big international audience, changing a release date gets even more complicated.

When Europa Editions decided to push back the publication of Ferrante’s novel “The Lying Life of Adults” from June to September, it scrambled to get two dozen international publishers on board. Europa had already printed 150,000 copies of the English translation by Ann Goldstein, and fans of Ms. Ferrante’s “My Brilliant Friend” books likely would have relished the chance to read her latest while sheltering in place. But her publisher decided against publishing the novel when many independent stores are still closed.

“It felt like it would have been a betrayal of the booksellers that have done so much for her,” said Michael Reynolds, Europa’s editor in chief.

Despite widespread bookstore closures, book sales haven’t cratered. Print sales so far this year are flat compared with the same period last year, suggesting that readers are still buying, according to NPD BookScan.

The Coronavirus Outbreak

• Frequently Asked Questions and Advice

  Updated May 28, 2020

  • My state is reopening. Is it safe to go out?

    States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.

  • What’s the risk of catching coronavirus from a surface?

    Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.

  • What are the symptoms of coronavirus?

    Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.

  • How can I protect myself while flying?

    If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)

  • How many people have lost their jobs due to coronavirus in the U.S.?

    More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 in 4 U.S. workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic took hold. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $100,000, a Fed official said.

  • Is ‘Covid toe’ a symptom of the disease?

    There is an uptick in people reporting symptoms of chilblains, which are painful red or purple lesions that typically appear in the winter on fingers or toes. The lesions are emerging as yet another symptom of infection with the new coronavirus. Chilblains are caused by inflammation in small blood vessels in reaction to cold or damp conditions, but they are usually common in the coldest winter months. Federal health officials do not include toe lesions in the list of coronavirus symptoms, but some dermatologists are pushing for a change, saying so-called Covid toe should be sufficient grounds for testing.

  • Can I go to the park?

    Yes, but make sure you keep six feet of distance between you and people who don’t live in your home. Even if you just hang out in a park, rather than go for a jog or a walk, getting some fresh air, and hopefully sunshine, is a good idea.

  • How do I take my temperature?

    Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.

  • Should I wear a mask?

    The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.

  • What should I do if I feel sick?

    If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.

  • How do I get tested?

    If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.

  • How can I help?

    Charity Navigator, which evaluates charities using a numbers-based system, has a running list of nonprofits working in communities affected by the outbreak. You can give blood through the American Red Cross, and World Central Kitchen has stepped in to distribute meals in major cities.

---

Well-known writers, like Suzanne Collins, the author of “The Hunger Games,” as well as John Grisham and Stephen King, are weathering the crisis, since their fans snap up their books and can often find them at big-box stores that have remained open.

“The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes,” by Ms. Collins, has sold more than 500,000 copies since it went on sale on May 19. Mr. Grisham’s “Camino Winds,” which went on sale in late April, has sold more than 207,000 copies, and Mr. King’s new book, “If It Bleeds,” sold nearly 200,000 hardcover copies in its first month, according to NPD.

“If there’s a retail outlet that’s open and sells toilet paper, that’s where you want to be,” said Nan Graham, senior vice president and publisher of Scribner, which published “If It Bleeds” in late April.

But for writers without a devoted following — especially debut authors or nonfiction writers who depend on media appearances to drive sales and attention — publishing in a pandemic could pose insurmountable obstacles.

In an ominous sign of how far-off normalcy may be for authors, some anticipated works of fiction have been bumped to next year. Namina Forna’s young adult fantasy debut, “The Gilded Ones,” which was due out in May from Random House Children’s Books, was postponed until March. Michael Sears’s new thriller, “Tower of Babel,” which Soho Press planned to release this summer, has also been delayed until 2021.

“How are those books going to be discovered if they’re not in the stores?” said Bronwen Hruska, publisher of Soho Press. “In some cases, we’ve pushed some books really far out.”

Kate Russo’s debut novel, “Super Host,” has been moved to 2021.Credit...Right: Tom Butler

In mid-March, Kate Russo was preparing to meet with booksellers in five cities to promote her debut novel, “Super Host.” The book, about a washed-up artist who begins subletting his London home as a vacation rental, was shaping up to be a hit, with strong support from indie booksellers. But her publisher, Putnam, postponed it, fearing it would never gain traction with readers when bookstores were closed.

Anticipating a crowded fall, it moved its release date to February. What the retail landscape, and the world, will look like then is anyone’s guess.

“We’re definitely going to lose something by moving these books out,” said Sally Kim, the publisher of Putnam. “It’s an unknown.”

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Fall Is Now Jam-Packed for Book Publishers. That Could Be a Problem. - The New York Times
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